← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 49% | 54% | 2.01 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
| Eibar win | 25% | 21% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 21' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
| 24' | 🟨 | David García · Las Palmas |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fran Rico · Eibar |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 855.00 | 493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1524.49 | 1489.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.55 | 27.22 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.33 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.79 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |