← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.13 | fair |
| Eibar win | 31% | 32% | 3.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Villarreal CF |
| 13' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 20' | 🟨 | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 27' | 🟨 | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · Villarreal CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 87' | ⚽ | Pedro León · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 487.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1475.87 | 1648.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.13 | 15.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.11 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.44 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |