← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 44% | 40% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.41 | value: +7% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 303.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1618.42 | 1584.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.38 | -2.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.22 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 24.31 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |