← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 68% | 68% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.59 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 11% | 14% | 8.90 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Oriol Riera · CA Osasuna |
| 28' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 60' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mikel Rico · Athletic Club |
| 74' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 1247.00 | 548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1623.51 | 1428.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.83 | -12.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 49.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| league points | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -2.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |