← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 35% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +3% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 34% | 32% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 18' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 29' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 31' | 🟨 | David Timor · Leganes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 59' | ⚽ | Xabi Prieto · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 62' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 75' | 🟨 | David Zurutuza · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 84' | 🟨 | Carl Medjani · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1245.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1490.36 | 1560.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.50 | 8.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.38 | 59.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.56 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.20 |