← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 45% | 42% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.24 | value: +3% |
| Leganes win | 25% | 26% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Jony · Málaga CF |
| 42' | ⚽ | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 57' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Duda · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai López · Leganes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 175.00 | 1240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1527.92 | 1504.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.31 | -5.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.62 | 51.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.88 | 3.86 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |