← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 44% | 53% | 2.22 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.29 | fair |
| Eibar win | 26% | 21% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 17' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Eibar |
| 23' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Diego Reyes · Eibar |
| 37' | 🟨 | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 64' | ⚽ | Hernán Pérez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 73' | ⚽ | Pablo Piatti · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fran Rico · Eibar |
| 79' | 🟨 | Felipe Caicedo · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Antonio Luna · Eibar |
| 84' | 🟨 | Felipe Caicedo · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟥 | Felipe Caicedo · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
| 90' | ⚽ | Léo Baptistão · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 143.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1478.79 | 1474.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.26 | 7.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.62 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| league points | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.38 | 4.63 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |