← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 37% | 40% | 2.66 | value: +7% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 33% | 29% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 48' | ⚽ | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 57' | 🟨 | Miguel De las Cuevas · CA Osasuna |
| 58' | 🟨 | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 86' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Rivière · CA Osasuna |
| 87' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Real Betis Balompié |
| 88' | 🟨 | Álvaro Cejudo · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | ⚽ | Felipe Gutiérrez · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 539.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1438.75 | 1477.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.18 | -10.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.25 | 41.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.31 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.63 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.57 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |