← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Oct 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 60% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 16% | 20% | 6.22 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 15' | 🟨 | Didier Digard · CA Osasuna |
| 29' | ⚽ | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 32' | ⚽ | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 58' | ⚽ | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 474.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1487.40 | 1425.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.66 | -14.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.43 | 45.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.54 | -1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.57 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |