← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
| Leganes win | 28% | 29% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luciano Vietto · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Samir Nasri · Sevilla FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | David Timor · Leganes |
| 69' | ⚽ | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Samir Nasri · Sevilla FC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | David Timor · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1232.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1514.08 | 1595.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.46 | 4.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.17 | 54.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.57 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.40 |