← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 87% | 85% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 11% | 11.00 | value: +26% |
| Eibar win | 4% | 3% | 26.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Fran Rico · Eibar |
| 17' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 56' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Eibar |
| 71' | 🟨 | Rubén Peña · Eibar |
| 73' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fran Rico · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 275.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1883.92 | 1478.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.40 | 34.93 |
| eye test v1 | 2.27 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.67 | 54.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.83 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.67 | — |
| state index | 1.39 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |