← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 69% | 68% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.85 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 11% | 13% | 8.84 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 33' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · Deportivo Alavés |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alexis Ruano · Deportivo Alavés |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marcos Llorente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 74' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 84' | ⚽ | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | 🟨 | Edgar Méndez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mariano · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 122.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1590.50 | 1472.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.02 | 21.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |