← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 36% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.46 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 34' | 🟨 | Aythami Artiles · Las Palmas |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 57' | ⚽ | Vicente Gómez · Las Palmas |
| 71' | 🟨 | Unai García · CA Osasuna |
| 71' | 🟨 | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
| 74' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fausto Tienza · CA Osasuna |
| 83' | 🟨 | Tana · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nauzet Pérez · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | David García · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 519.00 | 820.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1423.95 | 1534.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.84 | 7.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.33 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.17 | 4.83 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.12 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |