← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 39% | 43% | 2.49 | value: +6% |
| Leganes win | 31% | 28% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Granada |
| 76' | ⚽ | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 1218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -0.60 |
| -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1435.76 | 1504.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.05 | -9.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.18 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | — |