← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 50% | 39% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +4% |
| Granada win | 22% | 31% | 4.48 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
| 36' | 🟨 | Alexis Ruano · Deportivo Alavés |
| 52' | ⚽ | Edgar Méndez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | 🟨 | Javi Marquez · Granada |
| 63' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mehdi Carcela-González · Granada |
| 66' | ⚽ | Víctor Camarasa · Deportivo Alavés |
| 78' | ⚽ | Artem Kravets · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Deyverson · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ | Deyverson · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| coach days | 117.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1560.79 | 1556.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.60 | -27.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.32 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.25 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.75 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.17 | 24.78 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |