← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 70% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.90 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 10% | 12% | 10.07 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Alexandre Pato · Villarreal CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Mario Fernández · CA Osasuna |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Nicola Sansone · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 62' | 🟨 | Miguel Olavide · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 55.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1628.23 | 1429.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.32 | -20.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.33 | 41.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| league points | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |