← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 40% | 44% | 2.46 | value: +9% |
| Leganes win | 32% | 25% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 17' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
| 21' | ⚽ | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nani · Valencia CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mario Suárez · Valencia CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Luciano · Leganes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Diego Alves · Valencia CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jon Ander Serantes · Leganes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nani · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Martín · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1212.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1516.04 | 1515.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.04 | -42.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.75 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.50 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.25 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.10 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |