← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 38% | 33% | 2.57 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 32% | 35% | 3.09 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jony · Málaga CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zdravko Kuzmanović · Málaga CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Real Betis Balompié |
| 62' | 🟨 | Petros · Real Betis Balompié |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rafa Navarro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 78' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · Málaga CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Cejudo · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 266.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1479.31 | 1525.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.45 | -20.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.00 | 45.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |