← Primera Division 2016-17 · Tue, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 55% | 49% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.51 | value: +23% |
| Eibar win | 17% | 16% | 5.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Eibar |
| 39' | 🟨 | Fran Rico · Eibar |
| 42' | ⚽ | Nano Mesa · Eibar |
| 44' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 76' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Málaga CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mauro Dos Santos · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 142.00 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| 447.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1518.50 | 1468.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.96 | 5.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.25 | 49.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | — |
| league points | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.25 | 67.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.75 | 41.50 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 5.50 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |