← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 42% | 35% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 32' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 36' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 43' | 🟨 | John Guidetti · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| coach days |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 506.00 |
| 810.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1438.57 | 1553.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.88 | -30.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -1.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 36.33 | 69.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 78.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |