← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 82% | 66% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 25% | 7.90 | value: +100% |
| Leganes win | 5% | 9% | 18.25 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 27' | 🟨 | Carl Medjani · Leganes |
| 31' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Leganes |
| 44' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 54' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 64' | ⚽ | Rafinha Alcântara · FC Barcelona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 80' | ⚽ | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Omar Ramos · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 28 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 2.00 |
| coach days | 1204.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| 809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.71 |
| elo | 1510.29 | 1879.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | -5.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.98 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 2.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 2.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.50 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.50 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 70.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.53 | 2.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.50 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.50 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.50 | 5.67 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.98 | 1.60 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 2.40 |