← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 92% | 88% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 5% | 17.70 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 3% | 6% | 36.40 | value: +126% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 17' | 🟨 | Miguel Flaño · CA Osasuna |
| 32' | 🟨 | Unai García · CA Osasuna |
| 40' | ⚽ | Danilo · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Pepê · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 64' | ⚽ | Oriol Riera · CA Osasuna |
| 69' | 🟨 | Danilo · Real Madrid CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tano Bonnin · CA Osasuna |
| 78' | ⚽ | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tano Bonnin · CA Osasuna |
| 79' | 🟥 | Tano Bonnin · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| coach days |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 253.00 |
| 498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1893.28 | 1440.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.44 | -15.34 |
| eye test v1 | 2.17 | -0.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.50 | 67.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.50 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.93 | — |
| state index | 1.79 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |