← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Málaga CF win | 59% | 54% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.78 | value: +8% |
| CA Osasuna win | 15% | 17% | 6.59 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand