← Primera Division 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 82% | 83% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 8.80 | value: +14% |
| Valencia CF win | 7% | 4% | 13.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.