← Primera Division 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 88% | 80% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 14% | 12.70 | value: +77% |
| Valencia CF win | 4% | 6% | 22.20 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.