← Primera Division 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 61% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.48 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 17% | 21% | 5.71 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.