← Primera Division 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Athletic Club win | 61% | 68% | 1.62 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.04 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 15% | 14% | 6.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.