← Primera Division 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Valladolid win | 47% | 33% | 2.07 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 29% | 41% | 3.40 | value: +38% |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.10 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.