← Primera Division 2012-13 · Wed, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 77% | 83% | 1.27 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 14% | 8% | 6.84 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 8% | 9% | 11.85 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.