← Primera Division 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Valencia CF win | 70% | 76% | 1.40 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.05 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 11% | 9% | 9.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.