← Primera Division 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 39% | 33% | 2.45 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 33% | 37% | 2.80 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.