← Primera Division 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Málaga CF win | 63% | 72% | 1.50 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 15 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.