← Primera Division 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 83% | 85% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.00 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 5% | 7% | 21.00 | value: +43% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.