← Primera Division 2011-12 · Tue, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 90% | 87% | 1.05 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 9% | 13.00 | value: +18% |
| Granada win | 3% | 4% | 34.00 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.