← Primera Division 2010-11 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 52% | 39% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
| Almeria win | 24% | 34% | 4.00 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.