← Primera Division 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 85% | 86% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 8.50 | fair |
| Xerez win | 4% | 4% | 29.00 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 9 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.