← Primera Division 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Almeria win | 47% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| Sp Gijon win | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 24 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.