← Primera Division 2007-08 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 63% | 63% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 14% | 19% | 7.00 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.