← Primera Division 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 51% | 95% | 1.83 | value: +74% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 3% | 3.30 | fair |
| Real Madrid CF win | 21% | 2% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 35 | Shots | 3 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.