← Primera Division 2005-06 · Thu, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 47% | 86% | 2.00 | value: +71% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 8% | 3.20 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 25% | 7% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 3 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.