Colorado Rapids v Chicago Fire

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Nov 1, 01:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Colorado Rapids win	42%	43%	2.31	fair
Chicago Fire win	32%	33%	3.09	value: +3%
Draw	26%	24%	3.80	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	59%	62%	1.61	fair
Under	41%	38%	2.30	fair

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Chicago Fire win	2.88	2.88	0.0%
Draw	3.65	3.60	-1.4%
Colorado Rapids win	2.23	2.27	+1.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.