Toronto FC 1–2 Philadelphia Union

← Major League Soccer 2025 · Wed, May 28, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: Guido Gonzales Jr, USA

No odds captured for this game. Our books cover it when its markets open — Kalshi game-winners land every 6 hours, and a fixture that only just entered the spine (like a game added mid-day) picks up prices at the next pull. No strategy bet here either; the executor only bets where it has prices.

Timeline

75'	⚽	Ola Brynhildsen · Toronto FC
86'	⚽	Nathan Harriel · Philadelphia Union
89'	🟨	Tai Baribo · Philadelphia Union
90'	🟨	Alejandro Bedoya · Philadelphia Union
90'	⚽	Kai Wagner · Philadelphia Union

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Toronto FC	Philadelphia Union
accuracy ratio (last 10)	0.33	0.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)	0.38	0.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)	0.34	0.42
box share (last 5)	0.63	0.64
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	147.00	147.00
congestion 21d	4.00	4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)	-1.40	1.60
corners against avg (last 5)	4.60	4.60
corners for avg (last 5)	3.20	6.20
corners volatility (last 10)	1.49	3.02
elo	1364.76	1578.90
elo momentum (last 5)	14.95	21.60
eye test v1	0.21	1.19
eye trend v1	0.22	0.28
first sub minute (last 10)	57.00	59.30
form points (last 5)	6.00	11.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	0.60	0.60
goals against avg (last 5)	1.20	1.60
goals for avg (last 5)	1.80	2.20
goals volatility (last 10)	1.85	1.23
h2h win rate (last 5)	0.50	0.50
keeper form v1	0.85	0.59
league points	13.00	30.00
league rank	26.00	2.00
matches since blank	2.00	7.00
matches since clean sheet	3.00	1.00
matches since win	1.00	1.00
pass acc avg (last 5)	84.60	73.20
possession avg (last 5)	51.20	39.40
rest days	4.00	4.00
scorer concentration	0.20	0.41
season ppg	0.87	2.00
skill v1	0.37	-0.45
solidity v1	-0.98	0.67
sot against avg (last 5)	6.00	3.00
sot for avg (last 10)	3.60	5.60
sot for avg (last 3)	4.67	7.67
sot for avg (last 5)	4.80	6.60
squad age	28.48	24.88
state index	-0.46	0.40
sterile dominance v1	0.13	-2.01
threat rate (last 10)	0.24	0.37
threat rate (last 3)	0.23	0.44
threat rate (last 5)	0.28	0.41
venue ppg (last 5)	0.60	1.80
xg against avg (last 5)	1.88	1.00
xg for avg (last 5)	1.16	1.83

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

BMO Field