← Premier League 2002-03 · Mon, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M Halsey
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aston Villa win | 47% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| Birmingham win | 25% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.