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interaction miner v3: AH line x H2H x stakes x everything

← lab Β· 65044 pairs tested Β· 31815 survive every era Β· ran 7/4/2026

What this is: Theory-free sweep: correlates every pre-match factor with every outcome, corrects for the thousands of tests, and keeps only effects stable in every era.
Theory-free sweep: every pre-match factor against every outcome. Only correlations that stay significant after multiple-testing correction AND point the same way in every era are shown. Strength guide: 0.02 tiny Β· 0.1 small Β· 0.2+ notable for sports.
FactorPredictsCorrelationBy era
market.ah_line * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home-0.454Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line / match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home-0.449Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.438Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.437Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line * match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home-0.435Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line / match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home-0.435Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line * match.temp_cgoal_margin_home-0.432Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
match.elo_gap * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.429+ + + +
market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.428Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_away * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home-0.426βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’
away__team.elo * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.425Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
home__team.elo * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.425Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
match.elo_gap / match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.424+ + + +
market.ah_line / market.p_over25goal_margin_home-0.423Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line * market.p_over25goal_margin_home-0.422Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line / match.tempogoal_margin_home-0.420Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line * match.tempogoal_margin_home-0.419Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
home__team.dominance_l5 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.416Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
away__team.dominance_l5 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.415Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_home * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.415+ + + +
market.ah_line / match.style_clash_cornersgoal_margin_home-0.415Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_home * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.414+ + + +
market.ah_line / market.overround_1x2goal_margin_home-0.412Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line * match.style_clash_cornersgoal_margin_home-0.411Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_away / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.411βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’
away__team.shots_for_avg_l5 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.410Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
home__team.corners_volatility_l10 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.410Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
away__team.corners_for_avg_l5 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.409Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
home__team.shots_for_avg_l5 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.408Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_away / match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home-0.408βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.407+ + + +
away__team.corners_volatility_l10 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.406Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_away * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.406βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’ βˆ’
market.p_home / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.406+ + + +
away__team.elo * market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.406+ + + +
market.p_away / market.p_over25goal_margin_home-0.405βˆ’ Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
home__team.h2h_win_rate_l5 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.405Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
away__team.goals_volatility_l10 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.405Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
market.ah_line * market.p_drawgoal_margin_home-0.404Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’
away__team.corners_against_avg_l5 * market.ah_linegoal_margin_home-0.403Β· Β· βˆ’ βˆ’

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

Factora pre-match metric (leak-free: computed only from earlier games)
Predictsa post-match outcome
CorrelationPearson r; sports live in 0.02–0.4 territory
By erasign of the effect in each historical era β€” must agree everywhere to be listed
Spec Β· the reproducible recipe
{
  "kind": "discovery",
  "sport": "football",
  "interactions": true
}