⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

interaction miner v2: HT momentum x market x events

← lab · 58128 pairs tested · 28782 survive every era · ran 7/3/2026

What this is: Theory-free sweep: correlates every pre-match factor with every outcome, corrects for the thousands of tests, and keeps only effects stable in every era.
Theory-free sweep: every pre-match factor against every outcome. Only correlations that stay significant after multiple-testing correction AND point the same way in every era are shown. Strength guide: 0.02 tiny · 0.1 small · 0.2+ notable for sports.
FactorPredictsCorrelationBy era
match.elo_gap * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.429+ + + +
market.p_away * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home-0.426− − − −
match.elo_gap / match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.424+ + + +
market.p_home * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.415+ + + +
market.p_home * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.414+ + + +
market.p_away / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.411− − − −
market.p_away / match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home-0.408− − − −
market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.407+ + + +
market.p_away * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.406− − − −
market.p_home / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.406+ + + +
away__team.elo * market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.406+ + + +
market.p_away / market.p_over25goal_margin_home-0.405− · − −
match.elo_gap * match.temp_cgoal_margin_home+0.403+ + + +
home__team.elo * market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.402+ + + +
market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.400− − − −
market.p_home * market.p_over25goal_margin_home+0.395+ · + +
home__team.elo * market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.394− − − −
market.p_home * match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.394+ + + +
market.p_away / match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home-0.394− − − −
market.p_home / match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.392+ + + +
market.p_away * market.p_drawgoal_margin_home-0.390− − − −
market.p_away * match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home-0.389− − − −
market.p_away * market.p_over25goal_margin_home-0.389− · − −
market.p_over25 * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.389+ · + +
market.p_home / market.p_over25goal_margin_home+0.388+ · + +
match.humidity_pct * match.state_gapgoal_margin_home+0.388+ + + +
market.p_draw / market.p_homegoal_margin_home-0.388− − − −
home__team.dominance_l5 * market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.387+ + + +
match.elo_gap * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.387+ + + +
away__team.elo * market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.387− − − −
match.elo_gap / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.386+ + + +
match.elo_gap * match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.386+ + + +
match.elo_gap / match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.382+ + + +
market.p_home * match.style_clash_cornersgoal_margin_home+0.380+ + + +
away__team.dominance_l5 * market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.375− − − −
market.p_home / match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.372+ + + +
market.p_away / match.tempogoal_margin_home-0.371− − − −
market.p_away / match.style_clash_cornersgoal_margin_home-0.371− − − −
home__team.elo * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.367+ + + +
match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.366+ + + +

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

Factora pre-match metric (leak-free: computed only from earlier games)
Predictsa post-match outcome
CorrelationPearson r; sports live in 0.02–0.4 territory
By erasign of the effect in each historical era — must agree everywhere to be listed
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
  "kind": "discovery",
  "sport": "football",
  "interactions": true
}