discovery v3: half-time momentum + event targets
← lab · 1092 pairs tested · 550 survive every era · ran 7/3/2026
What this is: Theory-free sweep: correlates every pre-match factor with every outcome, corrects for the thousands of tests, and keeps only effects stable in every era.
Theory-free sweep: every pre-match factor against every outcome. Only correlations that stay significant after multiple-testing correction AND point the same way in every era are shown. Strength guide: 0.02 tiny · 0.1 small · 0.2+ notable for sports.
| Factor | Predicts | Correlation | By era |
|---|
| market.p_home | goal_margin_home | +0.407 | + + + + |
| market.p_away | goal_margin_home | -0.400 | − − − − |
| match.elo_gap | goal_margin_home | +0.366 | + + + + |
| market.p_home | home_win | +0.326 | + + + + |
| match.state_gap | goal_margin_home | +0.322 | + + + + |
| market.p_away | away_win | +0.318 | + + + + |
| market.p_away | home_win | -0.314 | − − − − |
| market.p_home | home_goals | +0.313 | + + + + |
| market.p_home | away_win | -0.308 | − − − − |
| market.p_away | away_goals | +0.298 | + + + + |
| match.elo_gap | home_win | +0.289 | + + + + |
| match.ref_fouls_avg | match.total_fouls | +0.288 | + + + + |
| market.p_away | home_goals | -0.287 | − − − − |
| market.p_home | away_goals | -0.281 | − − − − |
| match.elo_gap | away_win | -0.279 | − − − − |
| match.elo_gap | home_goals | +0.274 | + + + + |
| match.elo_gap | away_goals | -0.260 | − − − − |
| home__team.elo | goal_margin_home | +0.259 | + + + + |
| match.state_gap | home_win | +0.256 | + + + + |
| match.state_gap | away_win | -0.246 | − − − − |
| match.state_gap | home_goals | +0.240 | + + + + |
| home__team.state_index | goal_margin_home | +0.235 | + + + + |
| home__team.elo | home_goals | +0.233 | + + + + |
| match.state_gap | away_goals | -0.231 | − − − − |
| match.form_gap | goal_margin_home | +0.227 | + + + + |
| home__team.shot_diff_avg_l5 | goal_margin_home | +0.225 | + + + + |
| away__team.elo | goal_margin_home | -0.222 | − − − − |
| home__team.dominance_l5 | goal_margin_home | +0.221 | + + + + |
| home__team.elo | home_win | +0.214 | + + + + |
| home__team.season_ppg | goal_margin_home | +0.209 | + + + + |
| away__team.state_index | goal_margin_home | -0.208 | − − − − |
| away__team.shot_diff_avg_l5 | goal_margin_home | -0.203 | − − − − |
| away__team.dominance_l5 | goal_margin_home | -0.203 | − − − − |
| home__team.state_index | home_goals | +0.203 | + + + + |
| away__team.elo | away_goals | +0.201 | + + + + |
| market.p_draw | home_goals | -0.200 | − − − − |
| market.overround_1x2 | match.total_fouls | +0.197 | + + + + |
| market.p_over25 | total_goals | +0.197 | + · + + |
| market.p_over25 | match.total_goals | +0.197 | + · + + |
| home__team.ht_lead_rate_l20 | goal_margin_home | +0.195 | + + + + |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| Factor | a pre-match metric (leak-free: computed only from earlier games) |
| Predicts | a post-match outcome |
| Correlation | Pearson r; sports live in 0.02–0.4 territory |
| By era | sign of the effect in each historical era — must agree everywhere to be listed |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "discovery",
"sport": "football",
"interactions": false
}