⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

discovery v3: interaction mining

← lab · 41400 pairs tested · 21958 survive every era · ran 7/3/2026

What this is: Theory-free sweep: correlates every pre-match factor with every outcome, corrects for the thousands of tests, and keeps only effects stable in every era.
Theory-free sweep: every pre-match factor against every outcome. Only correlations that stay significant after multiple-testing correction AND point the same way in every era are shown. Strength guide: 0.02 tiny · 0.1 small · 0.2+ notable for sports.
FactorPredictsCorrelationBy era
market.p_home * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.472+ + + +
market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.467+ + + +
market.p_away / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.465− − − −
away__team.elo * market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.465+ + + +
home__team.elo * market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.461+ + + +
market.p_away * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home-0.461− − − −
market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.461− − − −
market.p_home / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.459+ + + +
market.p_away / match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home-0.455− − − −
market.p_home * match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.454+ + + +
home__team.elo * market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.454− − − −
market.p_away * match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home-0.452− − − −
market.p_away * market.p_drawgoal_margin_home-0.451− − − −
match.elo_gap / match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.450+ + + +
away__team.elo * market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.449− − − −
match.elo_gap * match.ref_fouls_avggoal_margin_home+0.448+ + + +
market.p_draw / market.p_homegoal_margin_home-0.447− − − −
match.elo_gap / match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.447+ + + +
match.elo_gap * match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.446+ + + +
home__team.dominance_l5 * market.p_homegoal_margin_home+0.445+ + + +
market.p_home / match.ref_cards_avggoal_margin_home+0.443+ + + +
market.p_away / match.tempogoal_margin_home-0.443− − − −
market.p_away / market.p_over25goal_margin_home-0.443− · − −
market.p_home * match.style_clash_cornersgoal_margin_home+0.441+ + + +
match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.436+ + + +
match.elo_gap * match.tempogoal_margin_home+0.436+ + + +
away__team.dominance_l5 * market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.435− − − −
away__team.elo * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.435+ + + +
away__team.elo / home__team.elogoal_margin_home-0.435− − − −
home__team.elo * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.434+ + + +
away__team.dominance_l5 * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.432+ + + +
match.elo_gap / match.tempogoal_margin_home+0.431+ + + +
home__team.dominance_l5 * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.431+ + + +
match.elo_gap * match.humidity_pctgoal_margin_home+0.430+ + + +
match.elo_gap * match.style_clash_cornersgoal_margin_home+0.429+ + + +
market.p_over25 * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.429+ · + +
home__team.shots_for_avg_l5 * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.429+ + + +
home__team.corners_against_avg_l5 * market.p_awaygoal_margin_home-0.429− − − −
market.p_away / match.style_clash_cornersgoal_margin_home-0.429− − − −
away__team.goals_volatility_l10 * match.elo_gapgoal_margin_home+0.429+ + + +

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

Factora pre-match metric (leak-free: computed only from earlier games)
Predictsa post-match outcome
CorrelationPearson r; sports live in 0.02–0.4 territory
By erasign of the effect in each historical era — must agree everywhere to be listed
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
  "kind": "discovery",
  "sport": "football",
  "interactions": true
}