universal: cross-sport pattern replication
← lab · 5 concepts tested across sports · ran 7/3/2026
What this is: Measures the same abstract effect (fatigue, momentum, rest) independently in each sport. Patterns that replicate across unrelated sports are laws, not quirks.
The same abstract effect measured independently in each sport. A pattern that replicates in unrelated sports is the strongest evidence it's a real law of competition, not a data quirk.
| Concept | Per sport | Verdict |
|---|
| rating | tennis r=+0.340 · football r=+0.356 | REPLICATES — likely a law of competition |
| rating_momentum | tennis r=+0.008 · football r=+0.039 | same direction, not significant everywhere |
| rest | tennis r=-0.032 · football r=-0.022 | same direction, not significant everywhere |
| congestion | tennis r=+0.150 · football r=+0.013 | same direction, not significant everywhere |
| winless_run | tennis r=-0.038 · football r=-0.130 | REPLICATES — likely a law of competition |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| Concept | an abstract cross-sport idea (rating, rest, congestion...) mapped to each sport's own metric |
| Per sport | the correlation measured independently in that sport |
| Verdict | REPLICATES = same sign and significant in 2+ sports |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "universal",
"concepts": {
"rest": {
"tennis": "player.rest_days",
"football": "team.rest_days"
},
"rating": {
"tennis": "player.elo",
"football": "team.elo"
},
"congestion": {
"tennis": "player.congestion_21d",
"football": "team.congestion_21d"
},
"winless_run": {
"tennis": "player.matches_since_win",
"football": "team.matches_since_win"
},
"rating_momentum": {
"tennis": "player.elo_momentum_l5",
"football": "team.elo_momentum_l5"
}
}
}