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discovery sweep (football)

← lab · 240 pairs tested · 124 survive every era · ran 7/3/2026

What this is: Theory-free sweep: correlates every pre-match factor with every outcome, corrects for the thousands of tests, and keeps only effects stable in every era.
Theory-free sweep: every pre-match factor against every outcome. Only correlations that stay significant after multiple-testing correction AND point the same way in every era are shown. Strength guide: 0.02 tiny · 0.1 small · 0.2+ notable for sports.
FactorPredictsCorrelationBy era
home__team.elogoal_margin_home+0.317+ + + +
away__team.elogoal_margin_home-0.301− − − −
home__team.elohome_goals+0.283+ + + +
away__team.eloaway_win+0.269+ + + +
home__team.elohome_win+0.262+ + + +
away__team.eloaway_goals+0.254+ + + +
home__team.season_ppggoal_margin_home+0.251+ + + +
away__team.elohome_win-0.242− − − −
away__team.season_ppggoal_margin_home-0.232− − − −
home__team.eloaway_win-0.223− − − −
away__team.shots_for_avg_l5goal_margin_home-0.221− − − −
home__team.shots_for_avg_l5goal_margin_home+0.218+ + + +
home__team.season_ppghome_goals+0.217+ + + +
away__team.shots_for_avg_l5away_goals+0.216+ + + +
home__team.shots_for_avg_l5home_goals+0.211+ + + +
home__team.form_points_l5goal_margin_home+0.208+ + + +
home__team.season_ppghome_win+0.202+ + + +
away__team.season_ppgaway_win+0.198+ + + +
away__team.shots_for_avg_l5away_win+0.197+ + + +
away__team.goals_for_avg_l5goal_margin_home-0.195− − − −
home__team.goals_for_avg_l5goal_margin_home+0.194+ + + +
away__team.elohome_goals-0.193− − − −
away__team.form_points_l5goal_margin_home-0.192− − − −
away__team.season_ppghome_win-0.189− − − −
away__team.season_ppgaway_goals+0.189+ + + +
home__team.corners_against_avg_l5goal_margin_home-0.184− − − −
home__team.goals_for_avg_l5home_goals+0.181+ + + +
home__team.shots_for_avg_l5home_win+0.179+ + + +
home__team.season_ppgaway_win-0.178− − − −
home__team.eloaway_goals-0.177− − − −
away__team.corners_against_avg_l5goal_margin_home+0.173+ + + +
home__team.form_points_l5home_goals+0.172+ + + +
away__team.shots_for_avg_l5home_win-0.170− − − −
away__team.goals_for_avg_l5away_goals+0.169+ + + +
home__team.form_points_l5home_win+0.167+ + + +
home__team.goals_against_avg_l5goal_margin_home-0.165− − − −
away__team.form_points_l5away_win+0.164+ + + +
away__team.goals_for_avg_l5away_win+0.163+ + + +
home__team.corners_for_avg_l5goal_margin_home+0.161+ + + +
home__team.corners_against_avg_l5home_goals-0.161− − − −

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

Factora pre-match metric (leak-free: computed only from earlier games)
Predictsa post-match outcome
CorrelationPearson r; sports live in 0.02–0.4 territory
By erasign of the effect in each historical era — must agree everywhere to be listed
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
  "kind": "discovery",
  "sport": "football"
}