what drives 3+ goals?
← lab · AUC 0.505 (no real pattern — honest result) · ran 7/3/2026
What this is: Asks which pre-match factors drive one specific outcome, using a walk-forward model and permutation importance.
| Factor | Importance | Direction | Survives all eras? |
|---|
| home__team.elo | 0.0151 | ↑ +0.080 | ⏳ yes |
| away__team.cards_avg_l5 | 0.0095 | ↑ +0.019 | no |
| home__team.season_ppg | 0.0081 | ↑ +0.053 | ⏳ yes |
| away__team.corners_against_avg_l5 | 0.0070 | ↑ +0.003 | no |
| away__team.rest_days | 0.0067 | ↑ +0.006 | no |
| away__team.shots_for_avg_l5 | 0.0056 | ↑ +0.054 | ⏳ yes |
| home__team.rest_days | 0.0056 | ↑ +0.010 | no |
| home__team.form_points_l5 | 0.0043 | ↑ +0.026 | ⏳ yes |
| home__team.cards_avg_l5 | 0.0040 | ↑ +0.005 | no |
| match.rainfall_mm | 0.0038 | ↑ +0.016 | no |
| match.rained | 0.0030 | ↑ +0.019 | no |
| away__team.corners_for_avg_l5 | 0.0028 | ↑ +0.014 | no |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"name": "what drives 3+ goals?",
"sport": "football",
"target": {
"op": ">=",
"value": 3,
"metric": "match.total_goals"
},
"features": "all"
}